Posts Tagged ‘subscription’

Murdoch: Go Back to the Drawing Board

Thursday, April 8th, 2010

Rupert Murdoch is out making news today that pay walls are a great idea and fingering Google Search as his nemesis. He’s off the mark on two points.

Paywalls are attempting to monetize access to content. That model died the day Tim Berners-Lee released CERN HTTPd. Raw access to content will or has been commoditized and that trend will only continue. Especially in the realm of content creation where there is little value add (read hard news), there just isn’t enough invested that the crowd can’t do as well or better that allows for simple monetization of that access. In point of fact, using the paywall in such a way that you break the network effect devalues the the content in question by taking it out of the conversation.

This is why I say that Murdoch has the wrong boogeyman. Murdoch is not competing with the Google search and Adwords. He’s competing with Google Reader.

As Reader continues to improve it will start to learn how you consume news and start to make staying informed easier for the end user. The real challenge for major news organizations is how to go back to the product development drawing board and understand their businesses as services that add value for their end users.

Newspapers were begun to facilitate news aggregation and to  make keeping informed easier, more reliable, and enjoyable in the days where telegraphs were expensive or even earlier where 6-8 knots or 20 horse miles per day was the speed of information.

It is now time for news organizations to start thinking about how they are particularly able to add value in ways that leverage the network effect (instead of hindering it) and starts to organize the crowd and the news in ways that both entertain and speed the end users acquisition of news information.

Money can be made and subscriber bases can be grown by major news organizations, but they will be grown because the news business makes a pitch to news consumers that adds value to how the consumer uses their content today instead of simply disconnecting content from the open network. News organizations that choose to try to understand the news I want and offer it to me for one price across my PC, iPhone, iPad, game console, Boxee Box, etc. will give me a reason to be their subscriber.

I’ll note that I have but one login to Netflix and that login knows what I like, what I’ve consumed, helps me find new stuff that will amuse me and comes with a single cross channel price.

Which news organization will compete with Google Reader to make me happy to pay them?

Why the CCARDA matters to subscription services

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Today marks the effective day of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act. Our friends at PaymentsNews posted a round up of the coverage over the weekend.

The changes that will most impact game, software, social networking, and online content companies have to do with the new requirements upon offers of credit to college students. College campuses had become one of the most effective new credit card customer acquisition tools for the credit card issuers. With the new rules, it’s going to be a bit harder for those of college age to establish new credit and thus the 18-22 year old market is going to have incrementally less buying power.

What this portends for subscription services is a shift in payment method mix to other alternates. Primarily it will mean a mix more strongly weighted toward debit cards for those services with large “under 25″ populations. This is on top of a general trend we’ve noticed after the credit contraction late last year toward debit being a larger percentage of subscription payment methods. Services should be reviewing their subscription business practices with the higher debit mix in mind.

Online Business Metrics

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

If you’ve talked to us here at Vindicia, you know that we’re passionate about helping online merchants grow revenue through increasing customer acquisition and retention. That might seem strange for a billing company, but we think everyone selling digital goods online should focus on the levers that really impact their business – and our billing solution provides some of the answers.

So what metrics should you be tracking to understand acquisition & retention? This will depend on the nature of your products, but the following are a good start:

  • Monthly Unique Visitors (Monthly Active Users for social network apps & games)
  • Campaign conversion
  • Trial conversion
  • Free to paying user conversion
  • Offer page conversion

The metrics above disregard the work necessary for SEO & page ranking in search results (which obviously affect customer acquisition), but they are a good place to start for customer acquisition. For customer retention, the basic list should include:

  • Customer Duration
  • Average Ticket Price
  • Number of purchases / month*
  • ARPU / ARPPU (monthly)*
  • % of payment failures (gross & net, where net = passive opt outs after retry schedule)

* = microtransaction / free to play specific metrics

The average customer lifetime value (ACLV – product of customer duration & average ticket price) will also inform customer acquisition spend in the virtuous circle of online businesses.

Now that we’ve discussed the typical metrics, let’s take a look at some baseline values by industry.

Social / Casual Gaming

  • Free to Paying user conversion – Many analysts are plugging in 10% as an intuitive guess. From our experience, this is a highly subjective number and our microtransaction-based merchants have conversion rates ranging from 6% to nearly 20%
  • ARPU / ARPPU – Again, the blogosphere has done much analysis on these numbers and the consensus tends to be around $0.40 for Facebook games and around $1-$2 per user per month for standalone sites. Our merchants in this space tend to range between $1.25 to over $2, so these numbers seem to be inline.
  • % of payment failures – This tends to be higher for microtransaction-based games than subscription counterparts due to the nature of “one-time” transactions. The gross payment failure rate tends to be around 30%-40% as compared to a 20%-30% rate for subscriptions. Note that the net payment failure rate after billing retries is much, much lower, especially for subscription-based games (typically from 3% – 10% total).
  • Number of purchases / month – Our evidence indicates that the paying users are making multiple purchases per month – from three purchases every two months on average for one merchant to several per month for others.

Premium Content / B2C Software / Subscription MMOs

  • Customer Duration – While this depends on the product and the relative value for consumers, most of our merchants are finding a customer duration of 6 – 18 months, longer if products are renewed annually.
  • % of payment failures – As mentioned in the social gaming section, subscription-based sites have a much lower net failure rate. Our merchants are regularly achieving 90%+ retention rates.

The metrics covered here are the ones that we are most often asked about, and this is an effort to share what we’ve learned from our experience running consumer sites and working with our merchants across different industries. As with any metric though, each of these will depend on the products offered, target markets and customer demographics. For further reading on these topics, I’ve suggested a few links below.

Customer Duration / ACLV

http://www.csb.uncw.edu/people/howe/Classes/MBA541/Customer_lifecycle.pdf

http://customerexperiencematrix.blogspot.com/2007/04/deltalytics-lloyd-merriam-comments-on.html

ARPU / ARPPU / Microtransactions

http://giffconstable.com/2009/07/virtual-world-and-social-game-arpus/

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/4046/what_are_the_rewards_of_.php

http://freetoplay.biz/2007/06/28/economics-of-making-a-free-to-play-console-game/

http://dubitplatform.com/blog/2009/7/26/calculate-how-much-your-virtual-world-can-afford-to-spend-ac.html

http://lsvp.wordpress.com/2008/06/09/successful-mmogs-can-see-1-2-in-monthly-arpu/