Archive for the ‘CEO Blog’ Category

We pay you

Wednesday, March 24th, 2010

I was chatting with Sanjay today and we were reviewing some monthly retention metrics for our clients. Just on the additional retention we create for our clients and with the simple assumption of more than $1M in annual revenues, our client’s first year on CashBox is net free or better. In the second year we’ll be paying our clients to use CashBox. That includes our client’s internal cost to implement CashBox and migrate existing subscribers. When you add in recovered chargebacks, PCI cost savings, broader payment method support, tax service savings, and no gateway charges, we’re usually paying our customers to use CashBox in the first 6 months.

And we’re not just paying our clients in dollars. We’re paying them in the currency of compound interest created by longer customer lives.

“Freemium” anyone?

Don’t Waste the Internet on TV?

Monday, March 15th, 2010

Recently, Avner Rosen of Boxee debated Mark Cuban about the future of television. I didn’t get to see the debate (GDC overlaps with SXSW) but I saw Mark Cuban’s post debate post. It’s actually kind of funny as Mark had always been a visionary in the past, but it is what happens when you make a major capital investment in things like HDNET it colors your perspective. His basic thesis is that either because “Application Specific Networks” or the large capital investments in distribution infrastructure are pretty efficient, there is no reason that TV will migrate to the internet.

AOL proved that “Application Specific Networks” are an excellent way to lose a whole lot of money. It was profitable while it lasted but AOL is now a shell of itself and has to reverse its walled garden to hope to keep the small business left. Mark’s comment that there isn’t a revenue model to get content providers to move is just funny. Napsterization comes to everyone. My big question for Mark, though, is how did those large capital investments in shipping, warehouse, and retail capacity work out for Tower Records

As seems to be common in these major channel disruptions, people seem to be focusing on simply replicating the old distribution channel. TV over the internet is going to be about a lot more than just access to TV and movies. It’s going to be about being able to use video in new and different ways that will be impossible to replicate over a satellite and a waste of bandwidth over last mile connections that could otherwise be part of the total IP bandwidth of the last mile bandwidth instead.

I can’t wait to turn my TV provider off. We’re close.

Why the CCARDA matters to subscription services

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

Today marks the effective day of the Credit Card Accountability, Responsibility and Disclosure Act. Our friends at PaymentsNews posted a round up of the coverage over the weekend.

The changes that will most impact game, software, social networking, and online content companies have to do with the new requirements upon offers of credit to college students. College campuses had become one of the most effective new credit card customer acquisition tools for the credit card issuers. With the new rules, it’s going to be a bit harder for those of college age to establish new credit and thus the 18-22 year old market is going to have incrementally less buying power.

What this portends for subscription services is a shift in payment method mix to other alternates. Primarily it will mean a mix more strongly weighted toward debit cards for those services with large “under 25″ populations. This is on top of a general trend we’ve noticed after the credit contraction late last year toward debit being a larger percentage of subscription payment methods. Services should be reviewing their subscription business practices with the higher debit mix in mind.

Pricing, Macmillan, and Disintermediation

Tuesday, February 2nd, 2010

The book industry is doing some things right and some things wrong. On the positive side, it appears that most of the book publishers have decided to embrace disintermediation by internet enabled digital channels. They’re correct that, for now, piracy of books isn’t as easy as it has been for movies and music. By making compelling digital editions available they are staving off some piratical demand.

However, the Amazon/Macmillan price spat speaks to a darker side of the problem. Some commenters imply that everyone will lose money should the price of an ebook be less than the traditional hardcover. The reality of the matter is that consumers do expect to make direct monetary gains from the cost savings of digital distribution. There is certainly an argument that the ebook is a superior user experience (just have a hankering for a few new books and take a multi-leg round trip with only carry-ons to see what I mean) but there is no real economic argument on the other side that publishers have the same cost structure that they had in the physical book.

Unsurprisingly, price elasticity is in full effect and Amazon has shown publishers that the lower prices for which they are advocating sell more books. The usual economic rule here is that the unit increment (with no additional print/storage/ship/over inventory costs) increase will more than offset the revenue per unit decrease. Unlike the music industry, there is no historical bundling issue where the music business was selling you 1 song for the price of 12.

To assume that Amazon “taught” users that ebooks should be cheaper simply ignores the intelligence of the average book reader. Books are now going to be a full participant in the Napsterization of commerce and I predict book publishers and retailers will start to have to think about how to create longer customer lifetimes and higher customer lifetime value. I look forward to ebook subscription services.

What got me on the Soapbox

Friday, January 29th, 2010

In 1999, a company I founded called Emusic.com had some unique competition. We had legally licensed a large amount of independent music and were selling it in MP3 for $0.99 per song and $8.99 per album. However, we had this unique competitor known as Napster. We learned strategic subscription billing when we were “selling water” and Napster was “giving beer away for free.” Under pressure, we switched from $0.99 to the original “Emusic Unlimited” monthly automatic billed subscription service and we found we could not only compete with free, but could scale business on that model to $100s of millions of dollars.

We saw something coming. We knew that everything as a service was going to be the future of online content, gaming, and software. Any product or service that can have the physical removed from it has or will. We like to call that transition the Services Tsunami. Over the next few weeks and blog posts I plan to lay out what trends we saw and understood in 1999 that we finally see coming true as 2009 has just ended.

But first, welcome to our Soapbox.