Author Archive for Jeremy Nusser

Facebook Platform Trends

Friday, March 5th, 2010

Facebook is wildly popular, the latest comScore report shows that it currently has 38.3% reach across all internet users and they have doubled their unique visitors (111%) over 2009. Facebook’s success has led to a massive economy of third party applications built around their 400 million strong (and growing) user base.

Most of those applications make money through advertising or virtual goods and currency. Regardless of the mechanism, the underlying success factor is attracting a large number of users. That either creates an attractive demographic for advertisers, or creates a user base that will convert at some percentage into paying customers. Over the last few months Facebook made several changes that change the playing field for application developers monetizing on their platform.

1) The biggest of these changes is Facebook Payments. They’ve spent a lot of time working on building a payment infrastructure and it won’t be long before the only method of payment for applications will be Facebook Credits (at a 30% cut to Facebook ala Apple’s iTunes)- http://news.cnet.com/8301-13577_3-10460201-36.html

2) Secondly, there is an increasing shift towards limiting communication between applications and users, this has been ongoing for quite a while as Facebook balances notification spam and the major source of customer acquisition for many apps –  http://www.readwriteweb.com/archives/facebook_silences_app_notification_spam.php

3)   Facebook has been shifting more and more burden onto developers. This is a good thing overall for the community and encouraging developers to contribute value for the community. They are basically forcing their developers to shift from being a dev shop into providing a full customer experience including customer service, policies and monitoring. http://wiki.developers.facebook.com/index.php/Policy_Examples_and_Explanations

These trends will continue as Facebook continues to grow – it will be harder and harder to create a profitable business on their platform. The outstanding question now is will developers re-evaluate their relationship with Facebook and develop their own stand-alone portals?  The difference between offering an application on Facebook and offering it on a stand-alone site used to be quite large, but that gap is narrowing quickly. The freedom to control the customer experience is compelling, as is the ability to control customer billing and put more revenue in your bank account.

Will Facebook work with developers and entice them to stay on the platform? Or will it become a marketing channel for users to get acquainted with off-platform brands? Either way, it’s going to be an interesting year for social apps!

For more on the tradeoffs associated with “on or off” platform applications – Susan Wu of ohai! has a great post on her blog.

GDC 2010 Networking

Monday, March 1st, 2010

The Game Developer Conference (GDC to most) is coming up in just over one week. This is a well-attended industry event and the main benefit for most is the networking that extends well beyond the main conference hours. Due to this fact, the after-hours event schedule is almost overwhelming. Our marketing team had to build an event matrix just to sort it all out, and we figured it might be handy for others if the GDC mixer information was consolidated into one place.

To that end, below are the events, grouped by day and listed chronologically. If we missed some, give us the details in a comment and we’ll keep updating the list.

See you all there!

Monday, March 8th

Zynga Flash Soiree – Pre-GDC & Flash Gaming Summit Afterparty

Date: Monday, March 8
Time: 6-8pm
Location:
Harlot
46 Minna St.

http://fgs2010-party.eventbrite.com/

Tuesday, March 9th

Social Online Game Summit Mixer

Date: Tuesday, March 9
Time: 5:30 – 7:30
Location:

Moscone Center

North lower lobby

http://www.gdconf.com/events/partiesnetworking.html

Wednesday, March 10th

hi5’s Game Developer Program Mixer

Date: Wednesday, March 10, 2010

Time: 4:15 PM – 5:15 PM (PT)

Location:

Moscone Center

Room 122

North Hall

http://hi5games.eventbrite.com/

F2P Forum 2010 GDC Cocktail Mixer

Date: Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Time: 6-8pm

Location:

111 Minna Gallery

111 Minna St.

http://forum.f2pforum.org/2010/02/f2p-forum-2010-gdc-cocktail-mixer/

GamesBeat Networking Reception

Date: Wednesday, March 10th
Time:
6-8pm
Location:

Moscone Center

South Esplanade Room 303

http://www.gdconf.com/events/partiesnetworking.html

BRADIC VIP Reception (Baton Rouge Digital Industries Consortium)

Date: Wednesday, March 10
Time: 7-9pm
Location:

Slide SF

430 Mason St.

http://www.gdconf.com/events/partiesnetworking.html

GDC Tweetup

Date: Wednesday, March 10

Time: 8pm

Location:

Cigar Bar & Grill

850 Montgomery St.

http://macton.posterous.com/initial-details-for-our-gdc-tweetups-gdcdrink

Gamma IV Showcase Party

Date: Wednesday, March 10

Time: 8pm-3am

Location:

Mezzanine

444 Jessie Street @ Mint

http://www.gamesetwatch.com/2010/03/kokoromi_announces_gamma_iv_se.php

Thursday, March 11th

The Speakeasy Party (Hosted by Incomm, PeanutLabs, Vindicia & Zeevex)

Date: Thursday March 11, 2010

Time: 8-11pm

Location:

Metreon Center

101 4th Street – 4th Floor City Terrace

Friday, March 12th

IGDA Members Only Party

Date: March 12th, 2010

Time: 6-8pm

Location:

Jillian’s

101 4th Street

http://www.igda.org/civicrm/event/info?id=7&reset=1

The Dutch Party (INVITE ONLY)

Date: March 12th, 2010

Location:

The Supperclub San Francisco

657 Harrison Street

Billing System Economics

Monday, March 1st, 2010

When evaluating billing solutions, companies have a lot of information to sort through and little help to do so.  After talking with countless merchants, I’ve found that companies typically fall into two categories during their search – startup or veteran.  Startup companies aren’t necessarily those who just launched their business,  but any company that is bringing a new product to market and lacks pre-existing infrastructure or payment expertise falls into this category.  Veterans have built a system at least once before and are very aware of the pitfalls and the overall payments ecosystem.

Startup companies should spend the time to educate themselves on the industry – payments and billing are complex and outright confusing.  The diagram below shows the many different pieces of a complete billing infrastructure.

The systems above are involved when  a customer makes their purchase until the transaction is submitted to the customer’s bank (that issued the credit card or funds the payment source) and eventually money ends up in the companies bank account.  A further description of these systems, and how outsourced billing systems add value are after the jump.

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Online Business Metrics

Thursday, February 18th, 2010

If you’ve talked to us here at Vindicia, you know that we’re passionate about helping online merchants grow revenue through increasing customer acquisition and retention. That might seem strange for a billing company, but we think everyone selling digital goods online should focus on the levers that really impact their business – and our billing solution provides some of the answers.

So what metrics should you be tracking to understand acquisition & retention? This will depend on the nature of your products, but the following are a good start:

  • Monthly Unique Visitors (Monthly Active Users for social network apps & games)
  • Campaign conversion
  • Trial conversion
  • Free to paying user conversion
  • Offer page conversion

The metrics above disregard the work necessary for SEO & page ranking in search results (which obviously affect customer acquisition), but they are a good place to start for customer acquisition. For customer retention, the basic list should include:

  • Customer Duration
  • Average Ticket Price
  • Number of purchases / month*
  • ARPU / ARPPU (monthly)*
  • % of payment failures (gross & net, where net = passive opt outs after retry schedule)

* = microtransaction / free to play specific metrics

The average customer lifetime value (ACLV – product of customer duration & average ticket price) will also inform customer acquisition spend in the virtuous circle of online businesses.

Now that we’ve discussed the typical metrics, let’s take a look at some baseline values by industry.

Social / Casual Gaming

  • Free to Paying user conversion – Many analysts are plugging in 10% as an intuitive guess. From our experience, this is a highly subjective number and our microtransaction-based merchants have conversion rates ranging from 6% to nearly 20%
  • ARPU / ARPPU – Again, the blogosphere has done much analysis on these numbers and the consensus tends to be around $0.40 for Facebook games and around $1-$2 per user per month for standalone sites. Our merchants in this space tend to range between $1.25 to over $2, so these numbers seem to be inline.
  • % of payment failures – This tends to be higher for microtransaction-based games than subscription counterparts due to the nature of “one-time” transactions. The gross payment failure rate tends to be around 30%-40% as compared to a 20%-30% rate for subscriptions. Note that the net payment failure rate after billing retries is much, much lower, especially for subscription-based games (typically from 3% – 10% total).
  • Number of purchases / month – Our evidence indicates that the paying users are making multiple purchases per month – from three purchases every two months on average for one merchant to several per month for others.

Premium Content / B2C Software / Subscription MMOs

  • Customer Duration – While this depends on the product and the relative value for consumers, most of our merchants are finding a customer duration of 6 – 18 months, longer if products are renewed annually.
  • % of payment failures – As mentioned in the social gaming section, subscription-based sites have a much lower net failure rate. Our merchants are regularly achieving 90%+ retention rates.

The metrics covered here are the ones that we are most often asked about, and this is an effort to share what we’ve learned from our experience running consumer sites and working with our merchants across different industries. As with any metric though, each of these will depend on the products offered, target markets and customer demographics. For further reading on these topics, I’ve suggested a few links below.

Customer Duration / ACLV

http://www.csb.uncw.edu/people/howe/Classes/MBA541/Customer_lifecycle.pdf

http://customerexperiencematrix.blogspot.com/2007/04/deltalytics-lloyd-merriam-comments-on.html

ARPU / ARPPU / Microtransactions

http://giffconstable.com/2009/07/virtual-world-and-social-game-arpus/

http://www.gamasutra.com/view/feature/4046/what_are_the_rewards_of_.php

http://freetoplay.biz/2007/06/28/economics-of-making-a-free-to-play-console-game/

http://dubitplatform.com/blog/2009/7/26/calculate-how-much-your-virtual-world-can-afford-to-spend-ac.html

http://lsvp.wordpress.com/2008/06/09/successful-mmogs-can-see-1-2-in-monthly-arpu/

Virtual Goods & Accounting

Tuesday, February 9th, 2010

A recent post by Bill Gurley on his blog summarized accounting rules for virtual goods as laid out by Mick Bobroff of Ernst & Young and discussed the benefits of “rental models” for online game and virtual world companies. The main points made are:

  1. Virtual currency cannot be recognized as revenue when sold – it can only be recognized upon use (purchasing virtual goods with the currency)
  2. Virtual goods should be classified as consumable or durable depending on their usage
  3. To properly manage revenue recognition, companies will need to track and manage each virtual item in their system as well as customer statistics such as average customer lifetime value (ACLV)

Of course, everyone should check with their accounting team to set their own policies, but these rules are common sense and mirror the rules in use for prepaid cards.

The second part of Bill’s post talks about the major benefits of renting virtual goods, thereby transforming all virtual goods into “consumable” ones. This does help with the accounting complexity, but takes away the ability for users to collect and hoard which has proven to be an excellent motivator.

My main caution about using the rental model for virtual goods is that basing decisions on accounting rules is probably not the best route to take in the hyper-competitive online game and virtual world industries.